2008/04/01 - 06

Most Significant Mobile Device of 2007:

In a hydrogen bomb, a small "conventional"
explosion creates pressure which causes the
second "nuclear" explosion.  Without the first
explosion, the second will not occur.

In my opinion, the most significant mobile device
of 2007 was One Laptop per Child's "XO" computer.

Looking at the Apple iPhone, it got a lot of
press, but realistically, it did little to
change the overall landscape.  The strongest
force in the smart phone market remains the RIM
Blackberry series, and those phones are expanding
into the consumer market.  The iPhone's current sales
apparently 75% previous Apple product owners, which
raises the question whether the product has any
real traction beyond that crowd.  But the more
significant fact is that while smartphones in
general have been growing in popularity, the
majority of phones are still fairly basic,
with the main additions being SMS text messages
and cameras.  MP3 and video players have been
there, and were also growing in popularity -- and
if anything, it has been proven that you do not
need an Apple iPhone for that.

On the other hand, the One Laptop per Child's
XO has resulted in changes in the computer
industry, in the rapid deployment of a not
particularly hidden Linux software system, and
the fact that it proved to those who tested it,
that such an inexpensive device could be very
attractive even in the wealthier nations.

That latter fact resulted in the ASUS EeePC, and
some other products which are coming out fairly soon.
The significant effect is that suddenly, and I
have to emphasize "SUDDENLY" the $200 - $400 US,
high mobility computer is a reality.  The previous
UMPC market that Microsoft and Intel envisioned
has been hovering around $1,000 US for years now.
The most significant "cheap" alternatives still
tended to be in the $600 - $800 US price range.

The "One Laptop per Child" actually targetted
$100 US, and failed to meet that target.  But at
$200 US, it was still "jaw - dropping" for the
industry.  Every specification in the "OX" was
the basis for the equivalent specification in
the EeePC -- from its Linux software, its slow but
adequate-for-Internet-use processor speed, its small
main RAM size, its external size, and of course, its
initial price point.  The EeePC tried to stay as
close as possible to those ideas and numbers, but
with some tweaking to produce a more urbane product.

The result is that the EeePC has been a huge success,
with sales limited only by the ability of ASUS to
get parts to build them, and a new "sub-industry" is
forming around it.  Microsoft in particular has
clearly been forced to respond to both the "XO" and
"EeePC".  "EeePC" units preloaded with Windows XP "at
no extra cost" are expected to arrive this month.
While we general public do not get to see the pricing
deals that go on regarding preloaded Windows XP, it is
highly unlikely that ASUS has paid anywhere near what
I have paid for my copies of XP in the past -- either
bought by myself, or even included in my previous
computers.  Moreover, the end of support for XP will
have to be extended beyond 2009 to avoid any outrage
by customers who have bought a brand new computer only
to have its software obsoleted before they get a chance
to use it.  And extended support for even a cheap
version of XP would cause upset for users of more
expensive XP licenses if support were ended for those
versions.

The ASUS EeePC has been the nuclear explosion touched
off by the "XO's" conventional explosion.

Moreover, it looks like the traditional laptop market
has faltered this year possibly because of sales lost
to the EeePC directly or because people are waiting
for alternative versions to show up.

So the landscape of the whole industry is being altered.
But more than that, if the OLPC "XO" computer succeeds
in its deployment in the third world, it may change
the whole world.  That much has yet to happen.  But
time itself has not come to and end yet -- only 2007.